Are there any attractive GOP candidates with a real chance in 2012?
Please do not answer: Sarah Palin, John McCain, or Mike Huckabee — apart from those three all serious answers will be considered with care. I’m really open minded here, but not empty headed. Real chance means at least a 45% probability of beating Obama.
You may assume that Obama-Care is largely defeated except for a few new rules on insurance companies and concerning insurance for indigent children — let’s call it 15% of what’s on the table now — a little shred of a bill gets enacted into law. Obama of course declares victory, and so does the GOP — so it’s victory all round, especially for sanity.
You should also assume that the protest against the war in Afghanistan get ramped up from their present level — of about 1% interest — to a fairly massive protest that is nation-wide, involving marches in all the big cities, and a strong challenger to Obama at his party’s Convention — possibly Howard Dean or Hillary Clinton or some other Democrat with wide name recognition.
Assume that the recession is still in full swing in 2012, no real end in sight, and that the Fed continues to make “light at the end of the tunnel” comments once every three to five days, but nobody believes it. Jobs are still being lost in droves. Houses are being taken back by the banks, who still won’t lend out any money, and deflation is out of control.
Still, the GOP needs a viable candidate to win — not Bozos, not clowns, not Ditzy-Doos. Is there such a person in the GOP?
If so, what is there name — it’s OK to name a few, just put them in the order of precedence 1,2,3 etc.
I’m a Washington lawyer, but this is not a professional poll. I don’t work for any organization, political or otherwise, nor do I lobby, or advertise, or solicit campaign money. I just want to know, for my own curiousity what you think. I have respect for the opinions of others, well — at least some of them — that I’ve met here. So, please hold the insults and the jokes. I have no political affiliations with any party or candidate, nor do I perform legal or research services for same. I’m an author, I write books, that’s it.
No Obama 2012
Loading ...
huckabee 2012
STEPHEN COLBERT
No Obama 2012
No Republican will ever be attractive to me.
huckabee 2012
And what is Obama? Have fun with your election in your head.
Vote Palin
Maybe that uh, uh, Michael Steele guy.
Vote Palin
The Governor of Florida but he is too moderate for the Right Wing Republicans.
huckabee 2012
Glenn Beck.
No Obama 2012
The only wars in US history that elicited large protests were Vietnam and the Civil War. Both occurred because of the draft, a high death toll, and a sense that this wasn’t a war worth fighting. We are unlikely to see much protest over Afghanistan.
However a military defeat in Afghanistan is possible and would be a total disaster for the Obama administration. Were that to happen before the 2012 elections, Obama is finished. The Republicans will be able to run a cartoon character and win.
I don’t see Howard Dean as a candidate. The Republicans would have a field day shredding him. Hillary is dicey. To run she will have to resign from State. Lose and she is back to being an ordinary citizen.
As for the economy, you are probably right about continuing problems. I expect unemployment to be above 12 percent. The housing crash has probably run its course. Other problems are in the queue. Inflation versus deflation, hard to say. A high degree of monetary instability is more likely. The ultimate paralyzing force would be the widespread perception that it could turn sharply in either direction.
As for who will win. It might be less an issue of the Republican candidate and more one of the incumbent being sacked.
Another wild card is a third party candidate. An independent run by Sarah Palin could completely scuttle the Republicans.
But if you want names:
1 – Mitt Romney
2 – Rudy Giuliani
3 – Tim Pawlenty
Vote Palin
A lot of assumptions there. If the economy is still in the tank and the Democratic Party is divided over the war in Afghanistan and real health care reform fails again, then any credible Republican should be able to win the general election.
The difficult thing is figuring out a credible Republcian who can win the nomination. Huckabee and Romney are the two most likely front runners, but I could see Gingrich being resurrected.
huckabee 2012
Bobby Jindal and Tim Pawlenty are the two I can think of.